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Polymarket Quant Bot

Bayesian trading bot for Polymarket BTC Up/Down markets

About

A Python-based trading system for short-duration BTC Up/Down prediction markets on Polymarket. It combines feature engineering, online Bayesian probability updates, EV filtering, Kelly sizing, and risk controls to evaluate and simulate trades end to end. Currently focused on paper trading, validation, and execution reliability before live deployment.

Tech Stack

Python 3.11NumPypandasSciPywebsocketshttpxpy-clob-clientPydanticstructlogRichSQLite

Info

Category: Bot
Status: WIP
Technologies: 11

Architecture

Code Preview

Pythonbayesian_update.py

1def bayesian_update(prior: float, features: dict) -> float:
2    """Update probability using Bayesian inference."""
3    likelihood_ratio = 1.0
4 
5    # Momentum signal
6    momentum = features["btc_momentum_5m"]
7    if momentum > 0.02:
8        likelihood_ratio *= 1.4
9    elif momentum < -0.02:
10        likelihood_ratio *= 0.7
11 
12    # Volume spike detection
13    vol_zscore = features["volume_zscore"]
14    if vol_zscore > 2.0:
15        likelihood_ratio *= 1.25
16 
17    # Apply Bayes' rule
18    posterior = (prior * likelihood_ratio) / (
19        prior * likelihood_ratio + (1 - prior)
20    )
21 
22    return np.clip(posterior, 0.05, 0.95)